GJ Town India

Global slowdown to continue in 2019 and 2020 “We expect moderate growth slowdown to continue in 2019 and 2020”, says Arjen van Dijkhuizen, Senior Economist at ABN AMRO Bank NV inks in, A challenging year, under the Asia Outlook 2019. Looking ahead, we expect regional GDP growth in annual terms to fall to 6% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020, down from an average 6.2% in 2018. We expect the slowdown in China, (accounting for around 50% of emerging Asian GDP) to remain gradual. While China’s economy shows more signs of a serious cooling in recent months, the authorities continue with taking all kinds of offsetting measures. We assume China’s real GDP growth to fall from 6.6% in 2018 to 6.3% in 2019, the lowest level since 1990 (see for more background our China Outlook for 2019, Stimulus offsets trade risks). We expect growth in India - the region’s second largest economy – to remain solid at around 7.5% and India to maintain the status of fastest growing giant, even though In...

India’s foreign exchange reserves still provide ample cover of imports and short-term external debt Recently Economic growth jumped to 8.2% YoY in Q2, highest level since early 2016, proves, India is feeling the heat from emerging markets EM turmoil, but is no Turkey or Argentina! Q1 proves, India’s foreign exchange reserves still provide ample cover of imports, says Arjen van Dijkhuizen, Sr. Economist, ABN AMRO. His India Watch said, ‘Growth jumps to 2-year high despite market turmoil! Higher oil prices have driven external deficits up, but external / public debt ratios manageable, FX reserves still comfortable, higher core inflation and rupee weakness have triggered two RBI rate hikes! Parliamentary elections in spring 2019 litmus test for Modi, Further clean-up of banking sector needed! Over the past months, Ems have been hit by a general risk aversion, driven by ongoing Fed rate hikes and general US dollar strength, an escalating trade conflict between the US ...