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  With emerging market demand softening, who drives gold next   Recently, World Gold Council [WGC] said, Stubborn stagflation about gold in their published, Gold Market Commentary. The report suggests further, the relationship between the price of gold and its core drivers shifts over time, sometimes reflecting who is most active in the market. For example, US real interest rates (opportunity cost) were tightly linked to movements in gold between 2007 and 2022.   Last month we suggested that one reason for gold’s decoupling from rates post 2022 was the preponderance of emerging market demand from central banks and other investors, rather than a breakdown in US investor relationship with rates.   Now that central banks and Asian investors have stepped back a bit, as indicated by our Gold Demand Trends data, local premia and intraday session returns, a tighter gold-rates relationship could re-establish itself and Western investors (particularly the US) could become mor...

Gold in more than a decade up 28% through November   Gold is poised for its best annual performance in more than a decade up 28% through November. Behind this, central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand.   Asian investors have been a near constant presence, while lower yields and a weakening US dollar in Q3 fuelled Western investment flows. However, it is gold’s role as a hedge amidst rising market volatility and geopolitical risk that most likely explains its remarkable performance. As we look forward, all eyes are focused on what Trump’s second term may mean for the global economy. Thrill-seeking investors may benefit from an early wave of risk-on flows, but potential trade wars and inflationary forces may spill over into an expected subpar economic growth.    The market consensus of key macro variables such as GDP, yields and inflation – if taken at face value – suggests a positive but much more modest ...