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Resilient physical gold demand played a major role in rally   At the juncture of festive season, Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry share Gold Outlook for the remainder of 2024! He said, Gold witnessed a decent rally since the beginning of this calendar year. The price of yellow metal witnessed an upside in the domestic market especially after the outbreak of the geo-political tensions in the Middle East, triggering volatility in prices around the mid-year.    However, the prices saw some correction soon after the announcement of the customs duty cut in the union budget wherein the prices saw a drop of ~5% and the momentum soon gathered pace after this upside where prices hovered near a new all-time high range.     The factors that played a major role in this rally is strong official sector buying coupled with resilient physical demand which provided structural support that lifted gold’s trading range and also has the potential to continue till the rest o...

Strong buying interest from jewellery retailer & consumers   Recently, the World Gold Council (WGC) published the Gold Market Commentary, It's always the quiet ones! WGC said, flying high in August! Following a strong monthly increase in July, gold posted another healthy gain in August to finish 3.6% higher at US$2,513/oz.   It also reached a new all-time on 20 August before a very marginal decline into month end. According to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), gold was pulled higher by a material drop in the US dollar and, to a lesser extent, lower 10-year Treasury yields as the Fed signalled the time had come for rate cuts.   The main identifiable negative contribution came from a momentum factor, the gold return in the previous month, i.e. when high, the following month typically sees a lower return and vice versa. Also of note in August, the significant cut in import duty on gold in India, which took place in late July, has been a shot in the a...

Despite record-high prices demand only falling 2%!   The World Gold Council (WGC)’s Q1 2024 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that total global gold demand (inclusive of OTC purchases) was up 3% year-on-year (YoY) to 1,238t, marking the strongest first quarter since 2016. Demand excluding OTC fell 5% to 1,102t in Q1 compared to the same period in 2023.   Healthy investment from the OTC market 1 , persistent central bank buying, and higher demand from Asian buyers, helped drive the gold price to a record quarterly average of US$2,070/oz—10% higher year-on-year and 5% higher quarter-on-quarter. Central banks continued to buy gold apace, adding 290t to official global holdings during the quarter.   Consistent and substantial purchases by the official sector highlight gold's importance in international reserve portfolios amidst market volatility and increased risk. Turning to investment demand, bar and coin investment increased 3% year-on-year, remaining steady at the ...

Gold’s role as a strategic asset! Global Head of Research, World Gold Council Juan Carlos Artigas focussed on the ongoing catastrophes and the sentiment of geopolitics. He said, as the world’s attention has shifted to the crisis in Ukraine, we have received a lot of queries from investors about the effects of the recent events on gold’s performance in the short, medium and long term. Taking a step back, we believe that geopolitical events in isolation are neither the only nor the main reason why investors should own gold. Gold’s role as a strategic asset is linked to its broad contribution to returns, diversification, liquidity and positive portfolio impact. However, events like these represent a clear example of why gold is such an effective and well-established hedge against expected and unexpected market risks. As Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, morning GMT, the gold price surged to an intra-day high of US$1,974/oz and while it has given up most of Thursday’s gain...

ABNAmro says Gold outlook is still positive but…   Recently ABNAmro Bank N V focused on gold price 2021. Gold prices started the year on a positive note until covid-19-related market panic and a global shortage of US dollars in March spoiled the party. Gold prices dropped substantially.   Afterwards they recovered. Between March and August gold prices rallied strongly, by 36%. They cleared the 2011 high and rallied to a high of USD 2,075 on 7 August 2020. The stars were aligned for higher gold prices. For a start, the Fed took measures to fight the dollar shortage and embarked on unlimited QE. Other central banks followed suit.  Moreover, governments announced enormous fiscal spending plans to support the economy. This all supported investor sentiment and investors sold the dollar as safe haven demand dissipated. Third, investors also realised that most currencies are unattractive given rock-bottom interest rates and this increased the appeal of gold. Fourth, investor...

  Central banks gold buying offset by gross sales of 23.3t! At the Market Intelligence Group, World Gold Council (WGC) learned that by following net purchases in October, central banks returned to net selling in November. Global official reserves declined by 6.5t during the month. Like August and September, when central banks were also net sellers, this was the result of continued moderate buying being offset by a few sizeable sales. At a country-level, we can see that gross purchases amounted to 16t in November, broadly consistent with the levels of gold accumulation in August and September.  Uzbekistan added another 8.4t to their gold reserves, while Qatar (3.1t), India (2.8t), and Kazakhstan (1.7t) were the other countries to increase official gold reserves in November.   But this buying was more than offset by gross sales of 23.3t. In Turkey, higher local demand led to increased trading between domestic commercial banks and the central bank resulting in a 20.9t re...

  Gold and Silver Sentiment to Rise Sharply  ABC Bullion Market Update views a gold and silver sentiment to rise sharply in the coming months! In the Precious Metals Commentary, the bullion said, gold continues its strong recovery, but hit the resistance discussed in last week’s commentary (…Resistance in gold should come in at US$1888-1910…) with gold making a high so far at US$1896. There is distinct resistance at the US$1908 level. The Dollar Index is a big factor behind gold’s move as correlations between gold and Treasury-Inflation Linked bond yields (TIPS) weaken relative to early 2020. The DXY’s move to 89.73 takes it very close to the 50% retracement of the move from the 2011 lows to the 2017 high at 88.20, and along with medium-term target to 89.90 and 89.60 level, there is the suggestion that the recent move downwards in the Dollar index may pause soon.  There are signs that non-commercials longs are tentatively trying to increase their exposure to the DXY from ...

Gold-backed ETFs experienced small outflows in May Holdings in global gold-backed ETFs and similar products fell marginally in May by 2.2 tonnes (t) to 2,421t, equivalent to US$141mn in outflows as consistent European fund growth was offset by outflows in North America, early in the month, and in Asia. Global assets under management (AUM) in US dollars rose 1% to US$101bn as the price of gold rallied 1.7% during May. Year to date, global gold-backed ETFs have lost 0.5% in assets (19t, US$535mn), mostly due to heavy outflows in February, April and early May. However, higher uncertainty and market volatility have supported flight-to-quality flows into gold-backed ETFs in recent weeks. Regional fund flows: Holdings in European funds rose by 15.9t (US$627mn, 1.3%), North American funds had outflows of 13.7t (US$580mn, 1.2% AUM). Funds listed in Asia decreased by 4.1t (US$171mn, 6%) & other regions had outflows of 0.5t (US$17mn, 1.3%). Individual fund flows: ...

ETP records 1121.4t in Q1 2019 Since the start of 2016, assets in European gold-backed exchange traded products (ETPs) have grown rapidly, hitting a record high of 1,121.4t (US$48bn) in Q1 2019. Now accounting for 45% of the global gold-backed ETP market, they have transformed gold investment in Europe. This update summarises the growth in AUM since 2016, the factors behind it, and the outlook for European gold-backed ETPs. Stellar growth since 2016:  Since their emergence in 2003, gold-backed ETPs (exchange-traded products) have transformed the European gold investment market. At the end of 2012, when the gold price hit a record high around €1,400/oz, assets under management (AUM) were just shy of 1,000t (~US$50bn). After falling back between 2012-2015, as the gold price came off its highs, inflows into European gold-backed ETPs surged by an annual record of 281t in 2016. The value-eroding negative yield environment, as well as spate of political worries, not ...

According to the view of Jim Curry, Gold cycles predicted the decline and more to come further! By updating  Gold Cycle he inks, a mid-term top was due to materialize in the current timeframe, with our Gold Wave Trader report identifying the key timeframe of February 15-22 for that high to develop - and with the 1355 figure (April, 2019 contract) noted as key resistance. The actual high was registered on February 20th at the 1349.80 figure, and the subsequent reversal lower now favors the next mid-term downward phase to be back in force. In looking at the cycles, the last upward phase of the 34-day wave was expected to peak the larger 154-day component, once again with key resistance noted at the 1355 figure. From this high, a sharp correction was expected to play out into mid-to-late Spring- one which we should now be in the midst of - and with more to come. Even said, the decline won't be apocalyptic, but should be a normal mid-term downward phase - within the con...

8% higher over the first two months of the year According to the reported by World Gold Council, after four straight months of inflows, holdings in global gold-backed ETFs and similar products fell in February by 33 tonnes (t) to 2,479t, equivalent to US$1.3bn in outflows. Global assets under management (AUM) fell by 2% in US dollars to US$105bn over the month. However, global gold-backed ETF flows remain positive on the year (US$1.7bn, 2% AUM) on the back of strong inflows in January. The primary driver of global outflows was North American funds, as momentum investors took profits using these, the most liquid of the US-based funds. However, we continued to see inflows into low-cost ETFs, a factor we believe is linked to strategic allocations. Funds in Asia also experienced outflows of 5%, while European and Other regions were flat. We continue to see inflows into UK-based funds, likely driven by Brexit. The 506t of current holdings stands at an all-time high. Net...