GJ Town India

  The US dollar’s fate remains key for gold investment!   In the recently published, Q3 2025- Gold Demand Trends by World Gold Council [WGC] presented the Outlook for gold Investment 2025. According to the Outlook, the fate of the US dollar remains key for investment decisions, under headlines such as, debasement and de-dollarisation.    There is some disagreement about how readily these apply; our view is that the reality is more subtle. A weaker dollar during the first nine months of 2025 is largely pinned on hedging activity. US assets may have lost some of their exceptionalism but they remain core to most global portfolios. Hedging will just put the onus on them working a little harder for investors, and a marginal shift into less crowded assets is prudent portfolio management.    Anticipated US policy rate cuts are another key pillar for investors. While the opportunity cost motive remains important, the potential consequences of lower rat...

  Gold jewellery demand decline 19% y/y in consumption for Q3, 2025   The World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that quarterly gold demand reached 1,313t, or US $146bn in value terms and was the highest quarter for demand on record. Growth was driven primarily by investment demand which accelerated in Q3 reaching 537t (+47% y/y) and accounted for 55% of overall net gold demand.    This momentum was driven by a powerful combination of an uncertain and volatile geopolitical environment, US dollar weakness and investor FOMO as the price climbed higher.    Investors continued to pile into physically backed gold ETFs for a third consecutive quarter, adding a further 222t with global inflows reaching US$26bn. Year-to-date, gold ETFs have added a total of 619t (US$64bn) to their holdings with North American listed funds leading the charge (346t), followed by European (148t) and Asian funds (118t).    Bar and coin ...

  This gold worth US$3.8tn & size 88.8% of India’s GDP   Recently, Morgan Stanley focused on the robust India Economics and published their report; Ecoview: Gold - All that Glitters! Key contributors, Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist & Bani Gambhir, Economist of Morgan Stanley India reported, India's households’ wealth held in gold is estimated at US$ 3.8tn / 88.8% of GDP. This is providing a positive wealth effect, even as benign macro stability ensures that flow of gold demand  remains range bound.    With gold prices scaling new highs, “we take stock of trends in gold demand, stock of gold holdings with households, and the impact on macro stability” said Morgan Stanley by listing, 1: Gold prices are currently at all-time highs, trading around US$4056/oz, with domestic prices also reaching record levels of ~Rs127,300/10 gms. YTD, gold prices have risen by 54.6% in USD terms and 61.8% in INR terms.    2: India remains the world’s second...

  Add 15t net; noted Q3 outlook to follow on 30 October    Recently World Gold Council [WGC] published its’ report on, Central bank gold statistics! The report said, Central banks added a net 15t to global gold reserves in August, based on reported data from both the IMF and respective central banks. This is broadly in line with monthly net purchases between March and June, and signals a return to buying form after global reserves were unchanged in July (we revised down our initial July estimate of +10t after Bank Indonesia reported an 11t sale).    As we’ve noted previously, the recent gold price rally, which has reached multiple new all-time highs so far this year, likely remains a constraint on the level of buying by central banks. It may be a factor in more tactical selling too. But the recent slowdown in buying does not necessarily signal that central banks as a whole are losing interest in gold. In fact, recent developments, which we discuss below – show t...

  Global jewellery demand faces a subdued outlook in 2025     Recently World Gold Council analysed jewellery demand in the recently published Gold Demand Trends for 2Q 2025. Jewellery retailers in China are likely to face an equally glum H2. One silver lining perhaps is that platinum is unlikely to offer much of a challenge, given the sensitivity to its strong price rise.    Another is that high savings rates might offer some capacity to buy in H2, but probably needs stimulus and a brighter outlook for 2026 and beyond. In India, the economy is still vibrant but is expected to soften a little in H2. Combined with high prices, jewellery demand will likely remain subdued as consumers are anecdotally adapting less quickly to high prices than they have historically.    This theme is likely echoed in other regions. Flat or lower prices won't elicit the same response one might see in an environment where disposable income is solid. Thus, our expec...