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Showing posts with the label Gold-Market Commentary

A resurgence of policy and geopolitical tensions

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  The markets could be jolted by implied bond volatility    Recently World Gold Council [WGC] published their report, Gold Market Commentary: Positioning revisited! Key focal points said, Gold drags itself higher! Gold prices edged up 0.3% to finish July at US$3,299/oz. A stronger US dollar contributed to positive returns in all major currencies. Year-to-date, gold remains up 26%.    Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests a positive contribution from a rise in inflation expectations and tariff tensions via our geopolitical risk metric (both Risk and Uncertainty factors). Momentum factors also contributed positively, while a stronger US dollar proved a heavy drag on returns in July.    Gold ETF inflows of US$3.2bn (23t) were split almost equally between North America (US$1.4bn, 12t) and Europe (US$1.7bn, 11t), while Asia slightly increased (US$0.1bn,0.8t) and other gold ETFs (-US$0.1bn, -1t) experienced mild outflows. COMEX manage...

Flying high in August to finish 3.6% higher

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Strong buying interest from jewellery retailer & consumers   Recently, the World Gold Council (WGC) published the Gold Market Commentary, It's always the quiet ones! WGC said, flying high in August! Following a strong monthly increase in July, gold posted another healthy gain in August to finish 3.6% higher at US$2,513/oz.   It also reached a new all-time on 20 August before a very marginal decline into month end. According to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), gold was pulled higher by a material drop in the US dollar and, to a lesser extent, lower 10-year Treasury yields as the Fed signalled the time had come for rate cuts.   The main identifiable negative contribution came from a momentum factor, the gold return in the previous month, i.e. when high, the following month typically sees a lower return and vice versa. Also of note in August, the significant cut in import duty on gold in India, which took place in late July, has been a shot in the a...