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The risk of slowing the economy & causing a recession   Inflation is at a 40-year high but isn’t hitting all consumers as hard as top-line numbers might suggest, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today. Nonetheless, consumer worries about rising prices could become self-fulfilling if workers demand higher wages to compensate and will play a role in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation under control.    “After decades of relatively low levels, inflation is on everyone’s mind and has been making consumers and businesses miserable as prices have picked up dramatically over the past year,” Kleinhenz said. “However you measure it, inflation has become a powerful force and plays a key role in the nation’s economic outlook.”    “While actual price gains are expected to slow down in the coming months as they lap relatively high readings from the year before, the Fed is concerned about the risk of an unwanted jump in inflation expectations. If

Expected to hit repeated monthly Records after record year in 2020   Following a record year during 2020, imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports are expected to set new monthly records from now into the summer as the nation’s economy continues to recover from the pandemic, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.   “The import numbers we’re seeing reflect retailers’ expectations for consumer demand to the point that many factories in Asia that normally close for Chinese New Year this month are remaining open to keep up,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Regardless of whether it’s in-store or on retailers’ websites, the record holiday season and numbers for 2020 show consumers are buying again and have been for a while. This surge has been going on for months, and retailers are importing merchandise faster than ever.”   Retail sales during

Buyer embraced an earlier start to the holiday season   More than 150 million U.S. consumers plan to shop on Super Saturday this year, up slightly from 147.8 million in 2019, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.   “Consumers have embraced an earlier start to the holiday season. They are spreading out their holiday shopping and taking advantage of sales and promotions from retailers in local communities and national brands,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Throughout this year’s extraordinary circumstances, retailers have remained dedicated to protecting their customers, employees and the communities they serve regardless of how and when consumers choose to shop.”   The number of anticipated shoppers on the last Saturday before Christmas includes both in-store and online and is the second-highest reported since NRF began tracking this figure in 2016. Of those planning to shop, 42 percent intend to

Resiliency of Consumers pushes US Retail Sales Growth!   Retail sales have largely recovered from the pandemic heading into the holiday season but the growing number of coronavirus cases remains a threat and additional federal stimulus could help keep the economy on track, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.   “Strong growth in retail sales during the last few months points to the resiliency of consumers even in this disruptive pandemic environment,” Kleinhenz said. “Taking in all the evidence available, the U.S. economic recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected.”   Kleinhenz agreed with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent call for additional federal stimulus, which the chairman said “will not go to waste” even if it is more than necessary. “While there might be sufficient momentum and resiliency to propel the economy in the months ahead, additional fiscal policy support is critical to ensure that the recovery doesn’t st

American consumers shouldn’t be caught in the crosshairs! The National Retail Federation urged the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to avoid 25 percent tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods and released a new study examining key product categories and the negative impact on American consumers. “We support efforts to achieve better trade deals, but American consumers shouldn’t be caught in the crosshairs,” NRF Senior Vice President of Government Relations David French said during testimony prepared for a USTR hearing this afternoon. “It’s time to re-evaluate a strategy based solely on tariffs and work with our allies to put international pressure on China.” “For most of the consumer products on this list, there are very few alternative sources of supply,” French added. “It would be impossible for all market participants in our industry to simultaneously move sourcing to other countries. The capacity does not exist … In the short term, retailers would be fo

Retail’s Largest Event Cyber Risk Convenes! To be held on June 11-13, 2019 The National Retail Federation ( NRF), in partnership with the FMI, will host the NRF Protect conference where loss prevention and cyber risk experts from across the country will come together to discover tools and opportunities to advance the security and preparedness of the retail industry.  From corporate executives to industry consultants, more than 2,500 conference attendees with loss prevention, asset protection, cyber security and law enforcement backgrounds will build their networks and hear from an experienced line-up of speakers.  Vice Chairwoman and Managing Director of Morgan Stanley Carla Harris, Senior Corporate Security Manager for Target Brett Abbott and noted cyber security expert Sherri Davidoff are among more than 90 scheduled speakers. The Prevention Convenes is to be held on June 11-13, 2019 at Anaheim, Calif. The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest re

Far too great a gamble for the U.S. economy The National Retail Federation (NRF) issued the following statement from President and CEO Matthew Shay after the Trump administration released a list of $300 billion of Chinese goods that will be targeted by additional tariffs of 25 percent. “We support the administration’s efforts to deliver a meaningful trade agreement that levels the playing field for American businesses and workers. But the latest tariff escalation is far too great a gamble for the U.S. economy. Slapping tariffs on everything U.S. companies import from China – goods that support U.S. manufacturing and provide consumers with affordable products – will jeopardize American jobs and increase costs for consumers. “Taxing Americans on everyday products like clothes and shoes is not the answer for holding China accountable. Working with our allies who share the same concerns and immediately rejoining TPP are more effective ways to put pressure on China with

Spending on jewelry to grow by 31% Expected to total a record $25 billion! Mother’s Day spending is expected to total a record $25 billion this year, up from $23.1 billion in 2018, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation. A total 84 percent of U.S. adults are expected to celebrate in honor of their mothers and other women in their lives. “Mother’s Day spending has been growing consistently over the past several years, and this year’s spending is expected to be the highest in the 16-year history of our survey,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers are excited to celebrate all the moms in their lives, and retailers are ready to inspire consumers with unique gift options.” While the number of people celebrating Mother’s Day is in line with last year’s 86 percent, those celebrating are expected to spend more at an average $196 compared with $180 in 2018. Consumers ages 35-44 are likely to spend the most at an average $24

California Consumer Privacy Act to take effect in January 2020 The National Retail Federation (NRF) and the California Retailers Association (CRA) asked state officials to preserve popular customer loyalty programs, protect businesses from potentially ruinous financial penalties and address other provisions of a new privacy law set to take effect next year that could interfere with consumers’ expectations for customer service. “Data drives retail and the customer experience,” NRF Senior Vice President for Government Affairs David French said. “Retailers are firmly on the side of consumers and collectively spend billions of dollars each year to enact policies and build systems to protect personal information. But we believe the California law will have far-reaching effects that will interfere with retailers’ ability to offer the customer service Californians demand.” “Retailers know that establishing long-term relationships with their customers requires more than jus

Ensure US economy from Artificial problems like trade wars! Forecasts retail sales growth Between 3.8 and 4.4 Percent The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent to more than $3.8 trillion despite threats from an ongoing trade war, the volatile stock market and the effects of the government shutdown. “We believe the underlying state of the economy is sound,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “More people are working, they’re making more money, their taxes are lower and their confidence remains high. The biggest priority is to ensure that our economy continues to grow and to avoid self-inflicted wounds. It’s time for artificial problems like trade wars and shutdowns to end, and to focus on prosperity not politics.” Preliminary estimates show that retail sales during 2018 grew 4.6 percent over 2017 to $3.68 trillion, exceeding NRF’s forecast of at least 4.5 percent growth. Th

Americans are expected to spend a record amount on Valentine’s Day this year despite a years-long decrease in the percentage of people celebrating the holiday, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The vast majority of Valentine’s Day dollars are still spent on significant others, but there’s a big increase this year in consumers spreading the love to children, parents, friends and co-workers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Those who are participating are spending more than ever and that could be the result of the strong economy. With employment and income growing, consumers appear to be expanding the scope of who qualifies for a card or a box of candy.” Those surveyed said they would spend an average $161.96. That’s up 13 percent from last year’s $143.56 and easily tops the previous record of $146.84 set in 2016. Total spending is expected to be $20.7 billion, which is an increase

For First Time as Retailers Continue Rush 2 million containers in a single month Monthly Imports reach 2 million containers for first time as retailers continue rush to beat tariffs said NRF! Imports at the nation’s major retail container ports have set another new record, reaching 2 million containers in a single month for the first time as retailers continued to bring merchandise into the country ahead of a now-postponed increase in tariffs on goods from China, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. “President Trump has declared a temporary truce in the trade war, but these imports came in before that announcement was made,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We hope that the temporary stand-down becomes permanent, but in the meantime there has been a rush to bring merchandise in before existing tariffs go up or new ones can be imposed. C