GJ Town India

  Structural uptrends may offer attractive entry points in 2025   Over the past two years, a breakdown in the relationship between gold and real interest rates has been on display. “We have in the past attributed the phenomenon largely to emerging market central bank buying and geopolitical risk premia. But perhaps bond uncertainty has also played a role, said World Gold Council (WGC) in their Gold Market Commentary for the month of December 2024.   Data suggests that when interest rate uncertainty – as measures by the MOVE index - is high, yield trajectory appears to exert less of a drag on gold returns than when it is low. It also looks like this is a statistically significant difference, if we regress gold returns on a real yield component with an interaction dummy for when the MOVE index is above 100 (it has recently risen to 99).  The normal sensitivity is more than halved when bond uncertainty is high, even accounting for moves in the US dollar index. ...

Silver exhibits volatility similar to Indian equities: Motilal Oswal According to Alpha Strategist Report from Motilal Oswal Private Wealth (MOPW), standard deviation on monthly returns and maximum drawdowns for the period between 1990 to 31st October 2024, silver has exhibited volatility similar to Indian equities. The standard deviation for Silver is 26.6% which is similar to Indian equities at 26.8%. The maximum drawdown of silver is at -54% which is close the maximum drawdown of -55.1% in Indian equities. Silver has provided returns of the CAGR of 7.6% from 1990 to 31st October 2024, Indian Equities have recorded CAGR of 14.0% during the same period. Compared to Silver, Gold has provided a meaningful CAGR of 10.6% and scores better on account of recorded standard deviation of 14.7% and maximum drawdown of -25.1%. Hence, Gold can have a strategic allocation in portfolios, while Silver should be consider only for tactical allocation. The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices ...