GJ Town India

  The markets could be jolted by implied bond volatility    Recently World Gold Council [WGC] published their report, Gold Market Commentary: Positioning revisited! Key focal points said, Gold drags itself higher! Gold prices edged up 0.3% to finish July at US$3,299/oz. A stronger US dollar contributed to positive returns in all major currencies. Year-to-date, gold remains up 26%.    Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests a positive contribution from a rise in inflation expectations and tariff tensions via our geopolitical risk metric (both Risk and Uncertainty factors). Momentum factors also contributed positively, while a stronger US dollar proved a heavy drag on returns in July.    Gold ETF inflows of US$3.2bn (23t) were split almost equally between North America (US$1.4bn, 12t) and Europe (US$1.7bn, 11t), while Asia slightly increased (US$0.1bn,0.8t) and other gold ETFs (-US$0.1bn, -1t) experienced mild outflows. COMEX manage...

  Gold may continue its profit-booking up as the positive trigger    Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont - Gold for all analysed the last week of August 4 to 8, 2025 that reviewed, gold hit a record $3,534 (~ ₹102,250) last week, driven by U.S. tariff confusion on Swiss gold bars, widening the London–New York spread to $100 before narrowing to $60. Despite uncertainty easing, market fragmentation risks remain. Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical developments may continue supporting prices.    Last week, gold surged about 3% and reached a record high of $3534 (~Rs 102,250), helped by news of tariffs on one-kilogram gold bars from Switzerland. The worldwide bullion market was significantly impacted by the decision to impose taxes on gold, which resulted in halted shipments. Gold bars were previously thought to be exempt from President Donald Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," which include a 39% tariff on items imported from Switzerland, a sign...

  Gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising price 26%    Recently the World Gold Council [WGC] released the report for, Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 and asked the question, Downhill or second wind?    under the Downhill or second wind? report said, gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025 – and reaching double-digit returns across currencies. A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has resulted in strong investment demand.  As we look forward, one of the questions investors continue to ask is whether gold has reached a peak or has enough fuel to push higher.  Using our Gold Valuation Framework, we analyse what current market expectations imply for gold’s performance in the second half of 2025, as well as the drivers that could push gold higher or lower, respectively.    If economists and market participants are corre...

  Waiting to give gold a breakout or breakdown    Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont - Gold for all; said in a weekly [1 to 4 July] that, as the U.S. labour market continues to be strong and the economy created more jobs than anticipated last month, the price of gold has dropped below $3320 (~Rs 96500), fighting to regain its footing.    Last week, gold got off to a strong start and saw three days of gains before stalling when it became apparent that the US Federal Reserve was unlikely to lower interest rates anytime soon. Headlines about the US trade talks may influence Gold's movement in the near future if there are no important macroeconomic data releases. US President Donald Trump wrote a handwritten letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell requesting that he cut interest rates, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Trump, she added, thinks interest rates ought to be cut to around 1%.    However, Fed Chairman...

  The price of gold has lost some of its appeal   Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont - Gold for all said in the weekly Blog that, Gold loses lustre on optimism over US trade deals! The price of gold has lost some of its appeal , dropping 3% last week [June 23-28] as investors' optimism about the state of the world economy grows.    Investors applauded the news of the US trade agreement with China, as well as those with the EU, South Korea, and Vietnam. The move away from safe havens coincides with a period of de-escalating global tensions on all fronts: war worries are subsiding; tariffs have reached a standstill and are still in the grace period before being considered once more. Iran has demonstrated flexibility and a preference for diplomacy in geopolitics, as seen by its UN representative's statement that Tehran is amenable to establishing a regional nuclear consortium should an agreement be reached with Washington. The likelihood that the Israel-...

  The next target is Rs 111,000 if this positive momentum continues   Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry said, "The gold prices in India hitting an all-time-high is on the much-expected lines given the latest development in international geopolitical tensions, and weakening of the INR. The uncertainties drive up the demand of gold as a safe investment haven as compared to other asset classes. The price trend is going to face some resistance which will keep it below 1 lakh in the short-term.   However, prices may see some correction due to bouts of volatility. We anticipate prices to hover in the range of Rs. 1,00,200 - 1,00,500 on MCX, subject to international economic influences." In the row it is interesting to focus on Augmont Bullion’s Daily report for the 10, 11 & 12 June 2025,  where, Indian Gold resistance that recorded at Rs 99000/10 gm and Indian Silver Resistance Level at Rs 111,000/kg. And these resistance barriers that broken away on the Friday, J...

  Pushing US to exacerbate inflation & stymie economic growth    According to the Augmont Bullion! Gold holds steady ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariff threats! Gold prices remained stable as market investors squared their positions ahead of US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariff plans, which they fear will exacerbate inflation and stymie economic growth. The focus is now on potential reciprocal tariffs that the US administration may impose on April 2, prompting some market concern.    In March, U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than four years, with households dreading a potential recession and increased inflation caused by tariffs. On the geopolitical front, the United States on Tuesday negotiated deals with Ukraine and Russia to halt their strikes at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to attempt to lift certain sanctions against Moscow. Considering the Technical Triggers, Gold has stron...

Dollar weakness and ETF flows fuel gold   Recently, World Gold Council released their Gold Market Commentary for the month of February 2025. The Commentary reviewed the February; Gold hit new highs during the month, supported by a weaker US dollar, extending its y-t-d gains to 9%.   Gold continued its uptrend in February, hitting multiple new highs before pulling back to end the month at US$2,835/oz – up 0.8% m/m.1 This performance was echoed across major currencies, all of which also registered new record highs. General interest in gold was bolstered by continued flows of gold into COMEX inventories, driven by continued tariff uncertainty.   According to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), US dollar weakness during the month was one of the primary drivers of gold’s performance, alongside an increase in geopolitical risk and a drop in interest rates. And while gold’s strong price appreciation in January created a small drag, it was counterbalanced by positive suppo...

  Structural uptrends may offer attractive entry points in 2025   Over the past two years, a breakdown in the relationship between gold and real interest rates has been on display. “We have in the past attributed the phenomenon largely to emerging market central bank buying and geopolitical risk premia. But perhaps bond uncertainty has also played a role, said World Gold Council (WGC) in their Gold Market Commentary for the month of December 2024.   Data suggests that when interest rate uncertainty – as measures by the MOVE index - is high, yield trajectory appears to exert less of a drag on gold returns than when it is low. It also looks like this is a statistically significant difference, if we regress gold returns on a real yield component with an interaction dummy for when the MOVE index is above 100 (it has recently risen to 99).  The normal sensitivity is more than halved when bond uncertainty is high, even accounting for moves in the US dollar index. ...

  Demand largely driven by investment & wedding related purchases!   Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said, “Buying gold is considered auspicious during Dhanteras, Diwali. From gold jewellery to gold bars, gold coins consumers plan at least a token purchase as a matter of tradition as gold buying is generally believed to herald good fortune, wealth and prosperity and that is visible in the sharp rise in gold buying historically witnessed on this day.   Despite gold prices touching record highs of Rs 79,000/10 grams, anecdotal feedback from Industry indicates a resurgence in gold buying due to various ongoing festivals, with demand largely driven by investment sentiment and wedding related purchases.  The retailers have also invested on new designs and innovative usage of technology to make daily wear, lighter jewellery considering heightened gold prices, to invite consumers to come into the stores. There is also an expectation of incre...

Import duty reduction in India, a catalyst for demand!   Recently Kavita Chacko, Research Head, India- World Gold Council wrote about India’s gold market update: Import duty reduction, a catalyst for demand! The significant cut in import duty on gold and the resultant decline in the landed cost of gold have been a shot in the arm for gold demand in the country. Anecdotal reports suggest that there has been strong buying interest from jewellery retailers as well as consumers since the duty reduction.  At the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show, manufacturers noted that there has been a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, who are preparing for the festive and wedding season running through December.    In some cases, these orders have reached levels not seen in several years. Additionally, the trend of bar and coin buying remains strong, supported by consumers as well as jewellers who are capitalising on supportive gold prices ...