GJ Town India

Gold is still a crowded trade!   Georgette Boele, Senior Precious Metals Strategist of ABNAmro said, “Silver to slightly outperform gold prices in 2021!”  Earlier ABNAmro released our Gold outlook. The stars are aligned for gold prices but some cracks are appearing. Still they expect prices to rise in 2021 on lower US real yields and a weaker dollar. The caveat is that long gold is still a crowded trade.   For the same reasons ABNAmro also expect silver prices to rise. Silver tends to profit from higher gold prices as they are both bought as an investment, as a safe haven (gold more than silver), and for jewellery. Silver has another interesting dynamic. Silver prices tend to outperform gold prices if investors are more optimistic about global growth and trade, because silver has a substantial industrial demand component. Indeed silver prices strongly outperformed gold prices in 2020 for this reason and because silver was relatively cheap.  This wiped out four years of gold outperf

Global physical demand is a third consecutive decline Silver market to remain physical Surplus larger than the last year!    At the Annual Silver Industry Dinner hosted by the Silver Institute, Johann Wiebe, Lead Analyst in the GFMS team at Refinitiv presented the GFMS / Silver Institute Interim Silver Market Review, which includes provisional supply and demand forecasts for 2018. According to its’ highlights, the silver market is expected to experience a physical surplus of 35.3 Moz which is substantially higher than the previous year. Net holdings of ETPs have contracted 0.5 Moz to-dates, following seven annual increases in the last decade. On the other hand, exchange inventories have increased for the third consecutive year in 2018, particularly on COMEX which represents approximately 76% of total, rising by 52.5 Moz. As such, the net balance is expected to post a shortfall of 16.7 Moz. The silver price has averaged $15.89/oz so far this year (as o