...n’joy exporters! Holiday sales to grow over 4% YoY
NRF Forecasts holiday sales rocks!
The
National Retail Federation (NRF) announced that it expects holiday retail sales
in November and December – excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants – to
increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion
to $720.89 billion. The forecast compares with an average annual increase of
3.9 percent over the past five years.
“Our
forecast reflects the overall strength of the industry,” NRF President and CEO
Matthew Shay said. “Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence,
we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve
seen over the past year. While there is concern about the impacts of an
escalating trade war, we are optimistic that the pace of economic activity will
continue to increase through the end of the year.”
Holiday
sales in 2017 totalled $687.87 billion, a 5.3 percent increase over the year before
and the largest increase since the 5.2 percent year-over-year gain seen in 2010
after the end of the Great Recession.
"Last
year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment and
higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers
to spend more than expected,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“With
this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they
do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased
job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all
provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”
NRF’s
holiday forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators
including consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly
retail sales. The number includes online and other non-store sales. For
historic sales information visit NRF’s Holiday Headquarters.
Another
point is NRF Forecasts says, even with the increasingly tight labor market,
retailers have been preparing for their busiest season of the year by hiring
extra staff to help meet the demand expected during November and December. As
part of its forecast, NRF expects retailers to hire between 585K and 650K
temporary workers this holiday season, up from last year’s 582,500.
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