Diamond price could jump 30-40% in 2-3 years?

Alfa-Bank analyst estimates potential for diamond price! 

The potential for diamond price increase is 30-40% in the next two-three years, according to Alfa Bank's forecast. India's average diamond imports over 10 years amounted to $15 billion, and in 2024 they totaled $12 billion, while this year diamond prices fell to $125 per carat, according to Tolstykh's presentation!

"Alfa Bank experts say that the potential for diamond price growth can be 30-40% over a two-to three-year horizon," Yulia Tolstykh, an analyst in Alfa Bank's metallurgy and mining sector, said at an Alrosa press breakfast.  

India's average diamond imports over 10 years amounted to $15 billion, and in 2024 they totaled $12 billion, while this year diamond prices fell to $125 per carat, according to Tolstykh's presentation. 

It is also noted that diamond reserves formed on speculative demand in 2020-2022, as well as the abnormal growth of lending rates for the cutting sector of India led to an adjustment of the average price of diamonds to $125 per carat in 2024. In addition, the estimated volume of global diamond production is about 82 million carats per year, excluding non-jewelry diamonds, the analyst said.  

"If we divide the hypothetical revenue of the diamond sector by the level of $15.8 billion of the estimated supply volume, then we get $191 per carat of diamond, which implies plus 50% of upside to the current price," she said. However, the analyst noted that the cutting segment and diamond miners have accumulated reserves of stones, so it will take time to sell them.