RBI forecast India’s GDP growth upward for FY26

 

Strong domestic & improved India’s export competitiveness 

Vijay Singh Gour, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset Sharekhan said in a statement, “In the latest Monetary Policy Update, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signaled a commitment to stability and resilient domestic momentum by opting to maintain the status quo on key policy rates and retaining its neutral stance, keeping the Repo Rate at 5.5%.  

Reflecting persistent economic strength, the RBI has delivered a significant boost to the growth outlook, revising the FY26 GDP growth forecast upward to 6.8% from the prior 6.5%. This optimism is coupled with a substantially improved inflation forecast, which has been revised downward from 3.1% to a benign 2.6% for the year, largely due to easing food prices.  

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) assessed that current front-loaded policy actions are materializing and will continue to monitor the impact, signaling a cautious, data-driven path ahead despite global headwinds. The policy outcome aligns with market estimates, reflecting the central bank's prudent decision to allow the full transmission of prior policy initiatives to materialize within the economy.  

Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is exercising caution to fully assess the impact of global headwinds and tariff-related developments before considering any future adjustments.” 

Same view analysed by Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry on RBI MPC Announcement, “As an industry that is highly governed by lending, the gems and jewellery sector welcomes the RBI’s latest policy measures, which are expected to ease financing and improve the flow of credit.  

The step to permit Gold Metal Loans (GML) to the entire sector, as well as a suggested extension of tenor to 270 days, is particularly important since it will expand access, prolong credit cycles, and significantly alleviate working capital pressure throughout the value chain.  

In addition to this, the expansion of repatriation period for foreign currency accounts from one month to three months and the extension of forex outlay period for Merchanting Trade from four to six months will provide exporters with much-needed flexibility to better manage their cross-border transactions.  

Streamlining reconciliation procedures on the EDPMS and IDPMS platforms will further promote ease of doing business by minimizing operational challenges exporters typically encounter. No less significant is the removal of the 2016 framework that discouraged lending to major borrowers, as well as the widening of bank lending horizon to finance corporate purchases.  

Along with this, the six steps will provide a smoother capital flow into an industry that is highly dependent on credit support and working capital for domestic as well as export operations. With RBI raising India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5% as well, the overall macroeconomic mood is becoming increasingly positive. Low inflation, stable interest rates, and the upcomming festive season, the industry is well poised to ride on strong domestic demand and improved export competitiveness into 2026."