Current growth rate of LGD over 15% pa

LGD market could grow between

10 to 17 mn cts by 2030

Lab-grown diamonds (LGD) have existed for more than 60 years, with limited effect on the natural gem-quality market. But advancements in technology have pushed the lab-grown market into a more competitive position. Most notably, new chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technology deeply cut the cost to produce larger, higher-quality diamonds. Today, it costs $300 to $500 per carat to produce a CVD lab-grown diamond, compared with $4,000 per carat in 2008. 

As production costs have dropped, retail prices have followed. The retail price of gem-quality lab-grown diamonds have nearly halved in the past two years, while wholesale prices dropped threefold. Prices are expected to decrease even further as production efficiencies increase, new competitors enter the market and the segment commoditizes.

Lab-grown diamond producers have two options:1: to pursue gem-quality production for retail jewelry sales or to produce diamonds for high-tech applications, 2: The latter option has the greatest potential for long-term growth and profitability, as well as low barriers to entry. Sensors, semiconductors and medical cutting tools, for example, present an emerging market for CVD-produced diamonds. 

The current gem-quality, lab-grown polished diamond capacity is estimated at 2 million carats majority of which is melee (diamonds size less than 0.18 carats). By 2030, the market could grow to between 10 million and 17 million carats, if the segment can sustain its current growth rate of 15% to 20% annually supported by consumer demand and attractive economics. But we believe manufacturing capacity will be a major limiting factor in the short to medium term.

Ultimately, marketing and consumer perception will determine the effect of lab-grown diamonds on the natural diamond market. Three scenarios exist: Consumers could perceive lab-grown and natural diamonds as interchangeable, as two different products, or somewhere in between. Marketing could uphold the value of natural diamonds, especially if the prices of lab-grown diamonds continue to drop. It’s probable that consumers will view lab-grown diamonds as fashion jewelry but not luxury goods, limiting the effect on natural diamond demand.

This is said in the report; The Global Diamond Industry 2018, A resilient industry shines through, prepared by Bain & Company and AWDC.