GJ Demand Scenario in US is Optimistic

India’s exports of Gem and Jewellery (GJ) products is expected to be encouraging in USA market during the upcoming Christmas time majorly backed by rising GDP growth, employment rate and private consumption expenditure in the country.

This would be well in line with positive growth of India’s exports of cut and polished diamonds and gold jewellery to USA during the current FY2018 (April-October). India’s exports of cut and polished diamonds grew by around 22.10% (y-o-y) from US$4.45 billion recorded during April-Oct 2017 to US$5.43 billion in April-Oct 2018.

Exports of gold jewellery to USA market also witnessed an impressive growth of 13.13% from US$867.87 million registered during April-October 2017 to US$981.85 million in April-Oct 2018. Since, Jewellery demand in USA has rebounded, India’s exports of G&J products are likely to grow further in the coming months also.

Table -1 India’s Export of Cut & Polished Diamonds and Gold Jewellery to USA:

Months	Cut & Polished Diamonds (710239)		% growth/decline  (m-o-m)	Months	Gold Jewellery(711319)		% growth/decline  (m-o-m)
	India's Export to USA: 2017	India's Export to USA: 2018			India's Export to USA: 2017	India's Export to USA: 2018
Apr	577.34	722.33	25.11	Apr	125.3	121.37	-3.14
May	843.17	918.89	8.98	May	135.55	141.02	4.04
June	521.03	614.68	17.97	June	85.21	88.91	4.34
July	582.48	723.28	24.17	July	92.63	99.96	7.91
Aug	635.79	867.53	36.45	Aug	109.37	135.33	23.74
Sep	659.69	668.08	1.27	Sep	146.85	169.83	15.65
Oct	630.54	918.57	45.68	Oct	172.97	225.43	30.33
Total	4450.04	5433.36	22.10	Total	867.88	981.85	13.13

In USA, during the last three quarters (Q1-Q3 of 2018) around 80.3 tonnes of jewellery are demanded by its consumers as against 76.7 tonnes demanded during the same period last year registering a growth of around 5% (y-o-y).

Table -2 Jewellery Demand in USA (Q1-Q3 of 2018):

Quarters  2017	Jewellery Demand (Tonnes)	Quarters 2018	Jewellery Demand (Tonnes)	%Growth (Q-o-Q)
Q1	22.7	Q1	23.7	4.41
Q2	26.8	Q2	28.3	5.60
Q3	27.2	Q3	28.3	4.04
Total Q1-Q3	76.7	Total  Q1-Q3	80.3	4.69

Followed by positive consumer demand for jewellery products, USA imports of major products, Cut and Polished Diamonds recorded a jump of 14.12 % from US$16.26 billion in 2017 to US$18.55 billion (table-4).

India is a major sourcing partner of USA for cut and polished diamonds and the imports of CPD in USA from India has shown an impressive growth of 17.6% from US$6.56 billion imported during Q1 to Q3 in 2017 to US$7.71 billion in 2018.

Though, imports of gold jewellery in USA recorded a decline of (-) 4.95%, however its imports from India has risen by 7.39% to US$1 billion until Q3, 2018 from US$933.69 million recorded in the same period last year.

USA economic growth rate recorded an average rise of 3 to 4 % during Q1-Q3 of 2018 as against 1-2% during the same period previous year resulting in enhanced purchasing power of consumers for spending on various products including gem and jewellery.

Table -3 Economic Indicators of USA: 2018:

Quarters (Jan-Sep)	Economic Growth (GDP Growth Rate)	Private Financial Expenditure  (US $ billion)
Q1	2.20%	12722.84
Q2	4.20%	12842.02
Q3	3.50%	12957.22

USA imports from China have also been positive thus, trade war between India and USA has not much impacted their trade for G&J products, thus no additional benefit was shifted to India in this context.