Platinum demand that grew 8% YoY in 2024

 

A young customer and generate incremental demand! 

According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), global jewellery demand is expected to rise by 5% (+102 koz) year-on-year to 1,951 koz in 2024. Steady results for Europe in Q4 should bring about a 3% rise for the full year. The mass market and bridal sector have underperformed, due to such drivers as the slower uptake of lab grown diamonds than in the US, but the top end remains robust.  

This might surprise given talk of weakness in China hitting the luxury brands, but it is the entry level ones that have suffered, with the very top (where platinum is more prevalent) proving resilient. North America is expected to see slightly stronger growth in quarter four as the above positive factors remain in play and as some are expecting the start of an uptick in the engagement market.  

Destocking is also no longer a negative, but the election cast a cloud over October sales. As such, we see the full year up 2% to almost match the 2022 high. In Japan expectations that the current healthy conditions for non-bridal jewellery demand will continue, coupled with a weak Q4 in 2023, point to a strong year-on-year increase in the final three months of the year. We forecast total demand from that market in 2024 to increase by 8% year-on-year to 365 koz, the highest since 2019.

In China, platinum jewellery fabrication over Q1-Q3 recorded a 4% year-on-year decline. Economic uncertainties and weak consumer sentiment are unlikely to change materially in Q4’24. Given the already extraordinarily low quarterly demand in Q4’23 (due to local players’ high destocking of platinum as they shifted to gold jewellery), we forecast demand to remain flat y/y in Q4’24, leaving annual fabrication in 2024 down by 3% at 394 koz.  

Indian platinum jewellery fabrication is estimated to grow by 22% year-on-year to 248 koz (+45 koz) driven by exports and the aggressive expansion of retail stores. That said, this has been revised lower from our earlier estimate mainly due to our expectations that the pace of exports for the rest of the year is unlikely to match the spurt that we have seen so far in 2024.  

That aside, the broader story supporting the growth in platinum fabrication remains intact. We continue to believe that the expansion of retail networks into tier 2 and 3 cities is unlocking new consumer segments, enabling platinum to reach beyond the major urban centres.  

Rising income levels and a young population with brand awareness are driving a clear shift towards more frequent and personal celebration purchases, thus creating opportunities for platinum consumption. Additionally, as mid-size jewellers adopt platinum jewellery to increase their profits with higher-margin products, this may attract a new group of customers and generate incremental demand.






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