Retail Platinum investment to partially recover by 30%

 

Platinum investment demand likely to decline by 2% YoY  

According to the Platinum Quarterly, Q1 2025; published by World Platinum Investment Council [WPIC] said about the Platinum Investment demand Outlook for the 2025. The report said, total investment is set to decline by 2% year-on-year to 688 koz in 2025.  

Retail investment is forecast to partially recover by 30% (+58 koz), albeit to just a two-year high of 252 koz. This reflects further gains in China and a modest recovery in North America. By contrast, Japan is set for a second year of net disinvestment.

North American demand is forecast to regain some of the ground lost in 2024, with a forecast 18% lift this year. This reflects a relatively decent start to the year from those investors attracted by the record discount to gold, in spite of the overall weakness in North American precious metals retail investment.  

Even so, this forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty as most platinum investment bar imports are currently subject to a 10% baseline tariff, which in early Q2’25 decimated the trade (the minted gold bar market was also similarly affected).  

As such, this forecast assumes this issue will eventually be resolved, resulting in a much stronger H2’25. Should a solution not emerge then the next Platinum Quarterly may feature a considerable downgrade to the 2025 forecast.  

In Europe, platinum retail investment is expected to rise by 10% in 2025. High macroeconomic uncertainties and further cuts to interest rates will be key drivers behind this growth, as investors seek precious metals for wealth preservation. Even though fresh interest is likely to centre on gold, platinum should also benefit. With regards to China, bar and coin investment is expected to rise by 48% in 2025. 

The lack of alternative investment options, increasing sales channels (including online stores and livestream sales), and the market’s increasing interest in platinum investment will all benefit demand. Similarly, we expect growth in larger bars, while perhaps not at the same rate as 2024 as platinum now comprises a decent share of many HNW individual’s portfolios.  

Barring a shock that sends its price materially higher, creating excitement in the market, we expect Japanese investor interest in platinum to be limited over the rest of the year, as attention continues to centre on gold. 

On a net basis we continue to see some modest liquidations, as some investors take the opportunity of somewhat elevated prices to liquidate positions that have not performed as well as they would have hoped, some potentially shifting funds into gold. 

We expect platinum ETF holdings to increase by 100 koz to 3,407 koz in 2025, underpinned by strong fundamentals, opportunistic buying of dips and a continued and growing discount to gold.