Market witnessed a Silver 14 year high!

 

Uncertainty in trade policy that pushed up silver 

Augmont Bullion presented their daily analysis and technical price front during the week [7 to 11 July]. Well until they talk about gold and the related trend yet, on the 11 July, they suggested, silver trades at a 14-year high on trade policy uncertainty!  

Further Augmont viewed, due to trade policy uncertainties, silver has hit a 14-year high on global markets and a lifetime high on domestic markets, with a breakout trading above $37.5 (~Rs 110,000). In the face of growing trade tensions, demand for safe-haven assets drove gold's price up to about $3340 (~Rs 97000).  

President Donald Trump indicated plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15–20% on the majority of foreign trading partners and declared a 35% tariff on Canadian goods beginning August 1. Additionally, President Trump announced this week in a letter to Brazil that the nation will be subject to a 50% duty on commodities imported into the United States.

Concerns about longer-term inflation expectations were also aroused by Trump's demand for a 300 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate, which stoked rumours of a dovish Fed nominee the following year. Markets have priced in two rate cuts this year, but rate futures indicate that a hold is likely to be agreed upon at the next meeting.  

Here is charted the trend for the 8 July, Gold expected to trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96000) and $3400 (~Rs 98500) this week. While on 9^th July, Gold continues to trade near the lower side of the range of $3300 (~Rs 96250) and $3400 (~Rs 98500). If prices sustain below $3280 (~Rs 96000), weakness could further extend to $3200 (~Rs 94000).  

The trend witnessed on the July 10, Gold continues to trade near the lower side of the range of $3300 (~Rs 96250) and $3400 (~Rs 98500). If prices sustain below $3280 (~Rs 96000), weakness could further extend to $3200 (~Rs 94000). At the week ended, closing trend for gold continues to trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96250) and $3400 (~Rs 98500). If prices sustain below $3280 (~Rs 96000), weakness could further extend to $3200 (~Rs 94000).

Now focussing on the technical price front, Silver had given a breakout of its range, trading above $37 (~ Rs 108,000). Next target is $38 (~Rs 111,000) on July 8, while on July 9, Silver not remained able to sustain above its range of $37.5 (~ Rs 108,500) and $35.5 (~ Rs 105,000). Consolidation continues before heading higher towards the next target is $38 (~Rs 110,000).  

“Silver is not able to sustain above its range of $37.5 (~Rs 108,500) and $35.5 (~Rs 105,000). Consolidation continues before heading higher towards the next target is $38 (~Rs 110,000),” said Augmont Bullion for July 10.  

In the row, Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry said by reviewing the trend during the week, Gold rates were subject to moderate fluctuations during the week. The prices largely hovered around USD 3,300 – 3,350, thus remaining rangebound.  

The influence of the same is majorly due to the strengthening of dollar which kept the markets in mild pressure. The ripple effect of this can also be seen in the domestic gold prices where the prices remained well within the range of INR 97,000 – 99,000 / 10gms during the week. 

This trend will sustain in the short-term as we await the final disclosure of the Trump Tariff as this announcement will have a major influence on the gold prices. Along with this, the domestic consumption is expected to pick pace given that the Indian festive season is about to take off.  

In terms of Silver, prices hovered in the range of USD 36 – 37/Oz in international market with the white metal witnessing some upside in its prices in today’s trading session. Domestically, silver prices remained in the range of INR 1,10,000 – 1,11,000/kg. This can be attributed to the guarded investor sentiments followed by global commodity trends and price movements.  

Moving forward to next week, we expect gold prices to remain largely range-bound. International Prices are expected to trade in the range of USD 3,300 - 3400/Oz. Domestic Prices can hover in the range of INR 98,500 - 99,500/10gms. For silver, prices are expected to be relatively stable.”