Festive jewellery sales; likely to surge 18% in India

 

Demand in the 9k to 18k would be seen for heavier jewellery 

Recently, World Gold Council published tis Gold Demand Trends, Q2 2025 & reported that, Indian gold jewellery consumption in Q2 fell by 17% y/y to 89t, as gold prices breached the psychological Rs100,000/10g mark for the first time. 

Consequently, H1 demand of 160t was the second lowest in our data series from Q1 2000 – only the COVID-hit 2020 was lower (at 118t). The value of gold jewellery consumption showed a markedly different trend: spending in US$ rose 17% y/y and 43% q/q. 

In volume terms, the record gold price severely impacted affordability. This mainly impacted the mass market segment; the average weight of pieces bought by wealthier consumers remained relatively unchanged.  

The shift towards lighter-weight items continued in the record price environment, with consumers increasingly favouring 18k plain gold jewellery due to affordability. Gold-plated silver jewellery is also gaining increasing acceptance. Reflecting this shift in the market, the Bureau of Indian Standards recently approved hallmarking of 9ct jewellery. 

Festival demand related to Askhaya Tritiya on 30 April was apparently mixed. Large and corporate retailers, who were able to implement aggressive promotional and marketing campaigns, reported increased sales. In contrast, buying interest at smaller, independent stores was weaker.  

Recycling of gold jewellery remained very subdued during the quarter as Indian consumers preferred to either exchange old jewellery for new or, increasingly, pledge it as collateral for loans.  

While a seasonal recovery in demand is likely in Q3 as the festive and wedding seasons get underway, the continued high price environment looks set to put ongoing pressure on gold jewellery demand volumes in the country. In the row, by considering festivity; Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry suggest, despite gold prices scaling new highs, the sentiment among buyers during the festive season is likely to remain upbeat – primarily influenced by festive buying, increased disposable income due to favourable economic factors, and the affinity of the Indian population towards the traditional yellow metal.   

While demand dynamics are likely to remain consistent, consumer preferences are rapidly shifting towards lightweight jewellery, more for the purpose of adornment rather than investment. Driven by this trend, the festive season is expected to see a significant surge in demand for jewellery in the 9k to 18k segment, with a notable preference for heavier jewellery.  

Given the current market scenario, we foresee a festive surge of ~18% to 20% in overall sales, signaling some relief from the brunt that the gems & jewellery sector is facing due to heavy tariffs on exports.