Gold output to hit new high in 2019

S&P Global Market Intelligence expects

Further growth of 2.3 Moz in 2019

According to S&P Global, Market Intelligence, gold production increased for the 10th consecutive year in 2018 to 107.3 million ounces (Moz), and is expected to reach a new record high of 109.6 Moz in 2019, according to the latest metals and mining research by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Although the year-over-year increase of just less than 1% was the smallest in the last decade, output has risen by 40% since 2008.

Christopher Galbraith, Research Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, "We believe the forecast growth of 2.3 Moz in 2019 will be the strongest growth in the past three years, debunking commentary calling for peak gold.

More than half of the increase is projected to come from new mines that are expected to come on stream this year or have recently commissioned."

"Looking at the current project pipeline, we expect output to stay steady until 2022 due to advancements at developing projects. From there on, gold production is expected to fall by over 3 Moz in 2023 and up to 5 Moz in 2024."

By 2024, Canada is the only major gold-producing country to increase output, while Australian production is expected to fall the most Several Canadian mines, including Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd's Meliadine and New Gold Inc's Rainy River, are driving growth in national output that is expected to last for a few years. We project that the increase will push Canada past the U.S. in gold production in 2019 to become the world's fourth-largest gold producer.

Very few Canadian gold mines face depletion, and the country's output is expected to increase by four times the second-largest increase, by Ecuador, over the next five years. Ecuador's projected increases come from a handful of new projects, including Lundin Gold Inc.'s Fruta del Norte and INV Metals Inc.'s Loma Larga.

Among the countries with lower projected production, Australia's output is projected to fall the most. We expect the country to slip to fourth place globally in 2024 due to depletion of several long-lived assets, including St. Ives, Paddington, Telfer, Edna May, Southern Cross and Agnew/Lawlers.

Peru's production is also trending downward over the next five years, with Orcopampa, La Zanja and Tambomayo facing depletion before 2024. With closure only a few years further out, Lagunas Norte and Yanacocha will also be producing far less gold in 2024 than they have historically.