US Retail Imports Rising
Summer
blows high!
Busy
season approaching
With
tariff increases delayed for the foreseeable future and the busy summer season
approaching, imports at the nation’s major retail container ports are beginning
to climb again, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released
today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers
are starting to stock up in anticipation of a strong summer,” NRF Vice
President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariff
increases are on hold and progress is being reported in talks between the
United States and China, so the imports we’re seeing now are driven primarily
by expectations for consumer demand.”
U.S.
ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.62 million Twenty-Foot
Equivalent Units in February, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers
are available. That was down 14.3 percent from January and down 4 percent
year-over-year. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because
of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia and the lull between retailers’
holiday and summer seasons. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its
equivalent.
March
was estimated at 1.63 million TEU, up 5.9 percent year-over-year. April is
forecast at 1.75 million TEU, up 6.9 percent; May at 1.9 million TEU, up 4
percent; June at 1.89 million TEU, up 2 percent; July at 1.96 million TEU, up
2.9 percent, and August at 1.97 million TEU, up 4.3 percent. The August number
would be the highest since the record 2 million TEU set last October as
retailers brought holiday merchandise into the country ahead of expected tariff
increases.
Imports
during 2018 set a new record of 21.8 million TEU, an increase of 6.2 percent
over 2017’s previous record of 20.5 million TEU. The first half of 2019 is
expected to total 10.7 million TEU, up 3.7 percent over the first half of 2018.
“The
U.S. consumer, while more cautious, has not stopped spending,” Hackett
Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The inventory-to-sales ratio, however, is
on the rise. Part of this can be attributed to the heavy front-loading of
imports ahead of expected tariff increases that took place in 2018.”
U.S.
tariffs of 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that took effect
last September were scheduled to rise to 25 percent in March, but the increase
was postponed by President Trump, citing progress in talks between Washington
and Beijing. The tariff increase has been put on hold indefinitely while the
negotiations continue.
Global
Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett
Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle
and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia,
Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East
Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
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